A column by T. K. Bhaumik, Senior Advisor, Policy, Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)

The Doha Round: Multilateralism in Jeopardy
 

The Sixth Ministerial Conference of WTO to be held in Hong Kong in December 2005 should focus on bringing the Doha Round of Negotiations to a conclusion, even if it means targeting minimum outcomes, writes T.K. Bhaumik. The Members should then undertake serious introspection on how to take the WTO forward.

The forthcoming Sixth Ministerial Conference of WTO (13-17 December 2005) is expected to be lacklustre. As of now, there is hardly any interest and enthusiasm  in it. That is mainly due to the fact that the Doha negotiations have become a start-stop affair. The original Doha Ministerial Declaration, or the Doha agenda, has been reduced to a mere skeleton. The negotiations as they stand today are nothing but about the unfinished agenda of the Uruguay Round of negotiations. And yet there are problems. The Members have consistently failed to meet deadlines. There is a serious divergence of views on agriculture and non-agriculture market access (NAMA). There is a lack of willingness towards adequate liberalisation of trade in services. On other issues, such as WTO rules (including fisheries  subsidies), TRIPs, environment, etc. and more importantly (from developing countries’ point of view) trade and development, there is no clear idea about the state of negotiations, or whether the Members are moving towards a convergence or not.

Over all, the Doha negotiations are in a limbo. How did it happen?  What went wrong?  Many things can be said by way of explanation. While there are several reasons for the current state of affairs, it is suffice to say that in the interest of the WTO, Members should go that extra mile to bring the Doha negotiations to a conclusion, even if that means settling for minimum outcomes. After that it would be necessary for Members to introspect and reflect on the issues that impacted the causes for the problems that this Round has faced.

It would be wrong to aim for ambitious outcomes. The high level of ambition nurtured by Members is perhaps at the root of all problems. The story of Doha negotiations so far has been one that has hinged on ambitious liberalisation on one hand and equally ambitious protectionism on the other. These two interests have clashed often enough and both the developed as well as developing nations have been at fault, in equal measure. 

The striking aspect of WTO has been that the equations have changed significantly in favour of the developing countries. The weighing scale is now balanced.  This is a welcome development, and yet this is what is holding up progress in the Doha negotiations.  For example, consider the state of affairs in agriculture negotiations. Here, the developed countries have been put on the defensive by the highly aggressive developing nations. The developing countries have learnt their lessons from their experience of the implementation of the AOA, and are now pursuing very ambitious liberalisation of the developed country markets.  They have ganged up in various groups – G20, G33, G90 etc. - and are rooting for liberalisation of agriculture trade.  What is interesting is that they, however, do not want to reciprocate by way of improved market access. They only want the developed countries to open up their markets, by way of substantial reduction in domestic support and tariffs and non-tariff barriers.  In return, the developing countries, especially the most vocal ones, are not offering greater access to their own markets.

There is a lesson to be learnt here: this is a good example of how not to do negotiations. Negotiations are bound to come up against hurdles and stalemates, if the outcomes that are being targeted are lopsided. This, by and large, has been  the case with most of the negotiating items on the Doha agenda. Small wonder then that the  Doha negotiations are going nowhere.  Moreover, the developments in Doha negotiations point to the spreading malaise in WTO.  It has to be rescued from the menace of sickness, and only the Members - collectively - can put it back on the road to recovery and growth. Therefore, the immediate priority should be to conclude the Doha Round at the earliest - if necessary, with minimum outcomes. After its conclusion Members ought to introspect on how to take the WTO agenda forward.  Needless to say, it is sustainability of multilateralism that is at stake. The Ministers should keep this in mind as they head for the Sixth Ministerial Conference in  Hong Kong.

TK Bhaumik is Senior Advisor, Policy at the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), New Delhi.

[www.icfdc.com, 6 July 2005]