The Indian Media Scene: Newspapers

The independent New Delhi-based research organisation, Centre for Media Studies, conducts an annual review of the Indian Media Scene. The review for 2002-03, analyses the growth of newspapers over a 30 year period and the impact of the television boom on the print media. It also presents a critical analysis of the changing dynamics of media management in India, the role of ad agencies and the public relations business. This analysis is presented exclusively for ICFDC.com

By Dr. N. Bhaskara Rao, Chairman, Centre for Media Studies
1 November 2004

1998-2003 have been years of economic and political turbulence in India. During this period India has also witnessed an unprecedented growth of media, particularly television. Such situations provide challenges and opportunities for mass media, especially when the growth potential is so vast. For mass media, it is an opportunity to expand readers, listeners and viewers and consolidate. It is also an opportunity for media to reiterate its status and standing in a competitive scenario. There has been a proliferation of news bulletins on various TV channels during 1999-2002. The major daily newspapers have expanded and increased their circulation and readership during this period. The setback in the Indian financial markets, of course caused considerable anxiety on the size of advertising. But the year 2002 did not end as gloomily as projected initially.

Reach of Mass Media
Television today reaches nearly 50% of the population of adults against about 35% of newspapers of all periodicity. Interestingly, even in rural India, print media reaches about a quarter of the population against about 45% reached by TV. English publications have just 10% readers. Readers of daily newspapers comprise 90% of all readers. One in five readers are magazine readers and there has been a decline in magazine readership in recent times.

Reach of Mass Media -2002	Percentate of Adult Population
Mass Media	All India	Urban	Rural
TV viewers	45	75	33
Press - Readership	35	58	24
Radio- Listenership	20	21	19
Cinema Goers	19	29	15
Source: Readership surveys - averages rounded

Notwithstanding the inconsistencies in readership surveys, a time series analysis at the macro level for the 1972-2002 period reflects broad trends. Whatever little spurt there has been in readership of dailies is accompanied with the TV boom. However, if one takes a long term view, one could also say that TV has slowed down the growth of the print media. The trend confirms the view that Indian print media needs a breakthrough to help it realise its true potential.

The gap in Male-female differences in readership has decreased during the last two decades. Even so, there are some glaring differences. Younger age groups are not reading newspapers as much as their elders. Half of those who are not readers of any newspaper are literate. Nearly one-fifth of readers who read newspapers, do so "irregularly".

Newspaper Readership Vis aVis TV viewing over a 30 year period	Percentage of Adults
	Urban
Year	Newspaper Readers	TV Viiewers
1972 (NRS)	37	No TV
1978 (NRS)	53	9
1983 (NRS)	47	18
1986 (NRS)	56	-
1990 (NRS)	44	71
1995 (NRS)	46	76
1997 (NRS)	45	78
2000 (IRS)	45	78
2002 (IRS)	54	-
Source: CMS analysis of NRS & IRS

Newspaper Readership vis a vis TV Viewing over a 30 year period	Percentage of Adults
	Rural
Year	Newspaper Readers	TV Viewers
1972 (NRS)	7	No TV
1986 (NRS)	8	5
1989 (NRS)	9	27
1995 (NRS)	10	30
2000 (IIRS)	15	35
2002 (IRS)	24	-
Source: CMS analysis of NRS & IRS

Growth of newspapers (1964-2000)
Between 1964 and 2002, newspapers have grown by more than six times. The percentage of dailies increased to 11% from 6%. During the 40 years, the number of daily newspapers increased 12 times, from about 500 to about 6000. The overall growth in circulation has kept up. Circualation of dailies has increased from nearly 8 million in 1964 to 60 million. The annual growth in terms of numbers in the last decade (1990-2001) when the television boom was over, was steady at 5 to 6%. However, in terms of circulation the growth has not been steady and does not live up to its potential.

Growth in Newspapers 1964-2000
Years	Nos.
	Dailies	All
1964	514	8,161
1968	636	10,019
1969	650	10,281
1974	822	12,653
1975	835	12,423
1976	875	13,320
1991	3,229	30,214
1999	5,157	46,655
2000	5,364	49,145

Source: CMS Analysis of RNI figures

Publishing centres still limited
Even after 50 years of India's independence, there are not more than 90 centres in the country that publish newspapers. In fact, nearly 90% of newspapers are published from 25 metro cities. This is despite the availability of basic infrastructure elsewhere. The number of locations, however, has more than doubled over the last 25 years. Dispersal of daily newspapers within a state is yet another issue. "District editions" are a new approach with impressive results. The dispersal of newspaper publishing needed to be widened further.

Number of locations that offer mass media options in various languages
Language	No. of centres that publish a newspaper	Number of TV transmitters
English	31	-
Hindi	35	-
Kannada	6	45
Telugu	15	69
Malayalam	5	23
Tamil	10	43
Marathi	16	75
Gujarati	9	49
Oriya	4	65
Bengali	3	25
Assamese	3	23
Punjabi	4	9
Urdu	4	-
Bihar	7	47
Madhya Pradesh	11	79
Rajasthan	6	75
Uttar Pradesh	24	91
Haryana	4	8

Source: CMS analysis

Just one-fourth of the districts of India (598) publish a daily newspaper. Most of them however do get newspapers from other centres. In contrast 770 locations in India have a TV transmitter of one kind or other. However, here too, just 5% of these offer local content. There are cable operators practically in all urban centres of India, some of them trying to meet unique local needs, including coverage of local events.

Uneven Growth in Circulation during the past 35 Years
Year	Circulation (in Million)		% Increase in circulation over previous year
	Dailies	All	Dailies	All
1964	7.3	26.5	3.2	1.9
1968	7.6	27.0	5.7	5.5
1969	9.2	33.0	-	(-) 1.0
1974	9.4	33.8	2.2	(-) 3.5
1975	9.4	34.0	1.1	5.6
1991	58.8	130.0	-	-
1999	59.1	127.0	0.55	(-) 2.40

Source: CMS analysis of RNI figures

Growth in circulation
In the last couple of years Hindi publications, particularly the dailies have had better circulation growh than the other language publications, including English. While newspapers in the southern states had higher growth in circulation, the growth in the states of the north was not only significantly different from the previous years as one expects, given the size of the potential market, but also wherever there has been keen competition, the growth has been higher. Telugu, Kannada and Malayalam dailies grew a little over 5%. Tamil dailies, however, by and large, did not register circulation growth. Engish periodicals had a faster growth rate than periodicals of other languages.

Readership
In the past couple of years the overall readership of print has increased by about 4% both in urban and rural areas. Language publications obviously continue to dominate the scene. Out of the top 10 newspapers, only one is a English newspaper with multiple editions.

Over the years, readership for daily newspapers in the four southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, has increased significantly. This is significant for two reasons. First, both circulation and readership of dailies in these states have been growing. Second, the spread and proliferation of television in the four southern states has seen a mushrooming of language TV channels that broadcast local content, including news. This has not slowed the growth of readership in the south. A similar trend is evident in the case of Marathi dailies.

Interestingly, although circulation of Hindi dailies has increased by about 4.5%, readership increased by only 4%. Whereas in the case of the four southern states, the readership increase is a lot more than the growth rate of circulation of local language dailies. In fact, in the case of Tamil dailies, readership increased by 12% despite no increase in the growth rate of circulation of dailies.

Significantly, newspapers had gained steadily until 1989-1990 when the TV explosion started. Rajasthan in the Hindi belt is a case in this respect.

Circulation Vs Readership	Percentage
Language	Increase in Circulation	Increase in Readership
Tamil	0.1	12
Telugu	10.5	31
Malayalam	5.5	11
Kannada	5.5	14
Hindi	4.5	4
Marathi	2.9	6
Gujarati	4.2	4
Source: ABC & IRS

Readership in Urban Rajasthan
Year	% Adults
1972	16
1978	38
1984	40
1989	54
1995	51
1997	46

Source: CMS analysis of NRS & IRS


Readership and Circulation
There has not been a parity in growth in readership and circulation of dailies. Growth in readership has declined in the case of leading dailies although their circulation increased, marginally or significantly, except in cases such as Eenadu.

Per Copy Readers of Dailies
Publication	Per Copy Readers
Hindustan Times (English)	3.6
Times of India (English)	3.3
Statesman (English)	3.8
The Hindu (English)	3.4
Gujarat Samachar (Gujarati)	4.6
Sandesh (Gujarati)	4.9
Ananda Bazar Patrika (Bengali)	5.6
Bartaman (Bengali)	6.3
Eenadu (Telugu)	6.3
Daily Thanthi (Tamil)	7.9
Dinamani (Tamil)	6.3
Navakal (Marathi)	6.9
Malayala Manorama (Malayalam)	2.7
Mathrubhumi (Malayalam)	3.3
Prajavani (Kannada)	6.2
Punjab Kesari (Punjabi)	4.9
Navbharat Times (Hindi)	5.2
Navabharat (Hindi)	6.7

Source: IRS

Per Copy Readership
In 1972 the first National Readership Survey (NRS) recorded per copy readership of a newspaper at 9 persons. The multi edition dailies that have the largest ciculation in the respective language region have more readers per copy. English dailies have on an average 3-4 readers per copy as against 5-7 readers for leading dailies in Telugu, Tamil, Kannada and Gujarati. Even leading Hindi dailies have 5-6 readers per copy. This is an indication of the untapped potential for language publications. The increase in price of language newspapers has however not had a major impact on the circulation.

A decline in per copy readership is a good sign. As literacy levels increase and cash income of households go up, people will start buying their own copy of newspapers. Overall, there is a significant decline in per copy readership for most publications. In fact, during the last two decades, per copy readership has declined by half. Overlal, per copy readership of magazines has declined far more significantly despite the decline in circulation. The fact that circulation, readership and per copy readership of magazines have declined indicates at the possible impact of cable and TV.

Readership among women is a key variable in the growth of newspapers. The growth in readership and circulation among this segment did not keep pace in the 1970s and 1980s. However the efforts to increase school enrolment and reduce dropout rates among girls will have an impact on readership. This trend has contributed to the southern dailies registering a higher growth rate.

Single-daily dominant states
Many states reveal a preference for one daily. The dominant daily of the state has one-third or more of the total circulation of all dailies in the state and a readership of half or more of total readership in the main language of the state. This trend is evident in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal, Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

States with a dominant newspaper		Percentage
State	Newspaper	Share in the total circulation of dailies in the state	Share in the total readership of dailies in the state
Andhra Pradesh	Eenadu	55	92
Gujarat	Gujarat Samachar	38	58
	Sandesh	30	47
Karnataka	Prajavani	26	57
Kerala	Malayala Manorama	42	63
	Mathrubhumi	31	54
Punjab	Punjab Kesari	37	50
Rajasthan	Rajasthan Patrika	34	50
Maharashtra	Navakal	8	27
	Lokmat	6	26
Tamil Nadu	Dina Thanthi	18	66
	Dinamani	7	20
West Bengal	Ananda Bazar Patrika	24	45

Source: ABC, IRS with CMS  analysis

In states where a single daily dominates, the competition has been more intense, and even more interestingly, the growth in readership as well as circulation have been much higher. Telugu dailies have been recording higher growth rates in terms of circulation and readership. The Andhra Pradesh scenario is unique for it is the only state in India today where one single daily, Eenadu, with multiple editions, enjoys three-fourth of readership and more than half of all circulation of dailies in the state.

The average price of a daily newspaper in 1983 was about 55 paise. Fifteen years later, thanks to the price wars between newspaper groups in several metros, the average price has increased by four times, which is considerably lower than the rate of inflation in the country. However, advertising tariff has been revised more often than the price of the newspaper. Today the average price of a newspaper is little over Rs 2, irrespective of the number of pages and circulation.

Rise in Credibility, but no longer the primary source of News
With the balance of power in the country gradually shifting from the government and the executive to the people, the role of the news media has become even more significant. However the "agenda setting" role of newspapers has been on the decline. Television channels now share this role and often play a greater role in many cases. With moreTV channels devoting space to news and current affairs programmes, newspapers are facing tremendous competition.

A CMS survey on sources of information and their reliability reveals that overall, media credibility - including that of newspapers - has gone up during the last three years. Television has now surpassed newspapers as a 'primary sourcce' of information as well as the 'most reliable' source for political and sports news.Over half of the readers/viewers mentioned TV in this regard against only a quarter who mentioned nespapers as a source. Special efforts being made by TV to cover both politics as well as business/finance have had an impact on newspapers. This however does not meanthat newspaper readers are shifting to TV as the survey also reveals that when it comes to "comprehensiveness", both TV and newspapers are rated at par.

Preoccupation with politics continues
The Indian newspapers continue to be preoccupied with politics. Two decades ago, nearly 40% of editorial content was devoted to political news. Today hard news on politics comprise a third of the edictorial content of newspapers. Nearly half of the front pages of dailies by and large is devoted to politics, though financial and corporate reporting are making their way onto the front page.

One significant observation, based on a CMS study a couple of years ago, is that nearly 50-60 journalists located within a radius of 1 kilometre of the Parliament House in the capital determine the news priorities and almost half of the news content of Indian newspapers. Despite the rise in regional parties in recent years, there has been no significant shift in the Delhi-centric content of political news. The role of news agencies, including national, regional and other smaller ones, has declined significantly and these agencies contribute only about 20% of editorial content in dailies today as compared to around 30% two decades ago.

Shifts in Paradigm
The Indian media scene has witnessed a dramatic shift in recent times both in terms of content and control. While media content is more and more market-driven, control has now shifted, although indirectly to "foreign corporates". And yet there is no debate as if we have lost sight of the core issue - the direction of Indian media, changing concerns and the role of media.

Today advertising and market research in many ways determine the scope of media. Both these functions are in the hands of corporates controlled by foreign multinationals. The path and pace of media is set today by advertising, market research and media planning as much as in the case of ownership patterns and journalistic trends. By and large, the control of these "determining factors" has slipped out of Indian hands and it seems as if no one has noticed.

Media Viability
The share of advertising in total revenues of media has been on the increase: from a "supplementary" (25-30%) nature some decades ago to that of a "supportive" one (45-55%) in 2001. In fact, in the case of telvision channels, advertising has been a "primary source" (50-70%) of revenues, to the extent of "determining" priorities and preoccupations. Even in the case of some of the big newspapers, advertising revenues constitute as high as 60% of total revenues. The recent boom in media in India is often attributed to advertising. Advertising today steers and sustains media.

The big advertisers on newspapers and television today are mostly multinationals and the big corporate houses. In fact, the top 15 advertisers account for three-fourth of advertising revenue of newspapers and television channels. Except for Dabur, Tata, Bajaj and Videocon, all other top advertisers are multinationals. Top brands being advertised in the media belong to these corporates. There has been a wave of foreign brands in the market, which have given a boost to media as well as consumerism.

Ads sustain Media
The advertising agency business in the country has been getting concentrated in fewer hands in the last couple of years. Top five ad agencies, with major foreing holding, account for well over half of the advertising business in the country and this has been on the rise. Entry of foreign ad agencies has kept pace with the entry of foreign brands and the increase in the share of foreign corporates in the total advertising in the country. Global advertising networks such as WPP, BBDO, JWT, etc. have gained majority control in Indian advertising and the bulk of the market share too. Little over half of Indian advertising is now accounted by overseas based agencies. In fact, there are just two agencies in the top 20 which have no foreign partnership.

Market research, which is a key aspect for the growth of brands and media priorities, has also changed considrably. Until a few ears ago, there were about 6-7 market research agencies owned mostly by Indians. Today the top 7-8 market research agencies, accounting for more than two-thirds of research, either have already been taken over by one or the other foreign coproate or the latter has acquired significant interest in the agency. In fact, with the recent trend towards mergers and acquisitions, certain monopolistic trend is already evident in this function which generates an annual turnover of about Rs 3.5 billion.

Power Shift
More specifically, market research agencies ar the ones that also conduct readership surveys and rating surveys to determine television viewership, thereby directly influencing ad agencies as well as the media. The point here is that the methodology being followed by readership/viewership surveys is not without bias in favour of sponsors and subscribers. As a person who has been involved in launching India-specific readership and rating studies more than 25 years ago, I feel guilty for what is happening today, particularly the way in which the findings of these surveys are used both by newspapers and TV channels. The "TRP Trap", as I call this phenomenon, has larger and long range implications for the country than we seem to realise. The distortions are already evident today in our media scene.

With media becoming more complex and also specialised, two news mediating functionaries have emerged since 2000. This has serious consequences for the nature and character of the so-called Fourth Estate. Both these functionaries - media planning/buying and public relations - in a way erode into core prerogatives of the media functionaries thereby influencing editorial content. The fact that both these functions have become corporatised, with foreign agencies ruling the roost, is of some concern. The media buyers these days are involved in buying space and time 'wholesale' for advertising and retailing them on their terms.

In the case of public relations, the function of these 'experts' has implications on the functioning of journalists and editors. The function of PR is to ensure coverage for a particular view point. "Disinformation" is often part of this new trend. Today the majority control of these PR agencies in India is n the hands of foreign companies. In fact, some of these have entered India mostly to cater to the interests of their foreign clients. Many Indian companies, including some public utilties, are now being forced to avail the services of these PR agencies to make their presence felt in the media.

Future Prospects
The enthusiastic and prolonged lobbying by some publishers for foreign direct investment in the print media made the government, in 2002, depart from the 1956 policy. This is a good indication for the future prospects of Indian newspapers, both in terms of growth opportunities and profits, particularly for the big newspaper groups and media conglomerates. We are still far from 'media saturation'. In fact, a simple analysis of the "opportunities and challenges" for newspapers in India with a population of a billion people reveals that there is a huge untapped potential. In 2002, only a third of the country's population (above 14 years of age) read a daily newspaper. In some states, it is not even half that figure. Only a quarter of the literate population subscribe to a newspaper. In fact the growth pattern of dailies in the Hindi belt during the past 3-4 years should convince publishing houses to look at new consumer segments rather than just concentrating on "consumers with deep pockets". It is time to cater to citizens who are outside the reach of newspapers more seriously. This of course requires a mindset that involved moving away from the influence of the conventional market development model.

Pockets of Opportunity
Achieving a readership increase from one-third to two-thirds should not be an overly ambitious goal for the year 2020. The circulation of dailies should more than double by then from 60 million in 2002. Nearly 20 years ago I had advocated certain special efforts to expand the newspaper base in India from less than one-fifth of adults (for readership) and 10 million dailies (circulation) with an emphasis on Hindi speaking states. Each state has pockets or districts where readership/circulation levels are far below the state average. These are the pockets of opportunity. New ways of thinking and new strategies are needed to cater to these communities. The "two-thirds" goal is achievable only if individual newspapers can break these barriers.

Concerted Efforts
Building circulation in these pockets is not a one-step process. Libraries can be, and have been, used effectively to facilitate this process. Schools and literacy programmes can prove to be major facilitators in the drive to expand readership. The costs involved in a free supply of copies of newspapers to libraries and outlets of the literancy mission will not be much higher than the conventional marketing tactics. In fact, patience and a sustained campaign will yield a bigger pay off.

Organisations like the INS, Press Institute and even the ABC should go beyond their present mandate and take on promotional responsibilities for specific regions or particular segments of the population, where the reach of newspapers has been low or static during the past few years. It is a question of triggering readership. Training and research are two critical aspects for the growth of media. But both are equally neglected and fall far short of that required to harness the opportunities. Some big dailies have of late taken up specific surveys. But a lot more serious effort is needed in this regard.

The Eenadu Model
The Eenadu model is perhaps a relevant one in this regard. This Telugu daily has availed the opportunity for growth and has become the leader and in the process expanded the reach of newspapers in the state of Andhra Pradesh. The model was not a conventional one. The important features of the model are:
1. decentralisation and localisation of operations
2. attracting advertising by smaller and localised entrepreneurs
3. desinging content that meet the needs and aspirations of different sections of readers
4. extensive use of colloquial language and constant innovations in style
5. making the newspaper available to the local population in a punctual and prompt manner
6. allowing the paper to be used as a forum for "community action".

Some other dailies in other states too have adopted this model with good results. In the process Eenadu has found a new role for itself among different sections of the society, particularly among school going children. Such an approach in providing linkages with the grassroots is needed in practically every region and in every language to trigger the next wave of growth for newspapers in India. By adopting such an approach, newspapers' growth need not be affected by television. Interestingly, the Eenadu model has had a positive impact on the growth of the group's TV channel, ETV, as well. Both the daily and the TV channel have expanded parallely in the last couple of years.

The other aspect that newspaper groups need to keep in mind is that if TV reaches these 'media-dark' pockets first it would dampen the growth of newspapers. Today, with the diffusion on new technologies, TV (though not pay TV) has a better chance of reaching these non-readership pockets. So it is imperative that publishers draw up their strategies quickly. Then of course is the issue of price of a daily. Thanks to the circulation wars, a daily continues to be less than Rs 2 in many metros. However, this advantage is not shared by readers in rural India. This aspect needs to be addressed by newspaper groups.

Impact of TV
The states that have witnessed growth in newspaper circulation and readership in the last couple of years have also seen a proliferation in television viewership. While on the one hand we can imply that TV has no impact on readership levels, or at least on the growth of the bigger newsapers in the country, it can also be said that the competition has helped to expand the overall market for newspapers.One significant factor is that newspapers are no longer the primary source of news in both urban and rural India. The other is that the growth in advertising flow to newspapers has declined, though not in absolute terms. This decline is more evident in the case of single edition, small and medium newspapers than in bigger, multi-edition dailies. Dailies that have a better spread, extensive and localised content have not been affected as yet. The overall competiton has forced newspapers to be more proactive and reach out for new opportunities. The fact that frequent readership surveys and market surveys are being sponsored is an indication of the increasingly competitive scenario. However, the methodology of readership surveys and their scope need to be reworked so that newspapers can chart out effective strategies for expanding their reach.

A recent CMS study has indicated that viewership of TV news bulletins will lead to increase in readership of daily newspapers, although a lot more selectively, than ever before. In a sense TV news bulletins are appetizers tha lead to newspaper readeing (or referrals). However, this trend needs to be reconfirmed through research as the number of bulletins as well as analysis based current affairs programmes on TV channels have proliferated (nearly 80 a week). Then, there are more than a couple of 24-hour English language channels that broadcast ten hours of news and current affairs programmes. Given this proliferation, TV has become far more interactive and participative than newspapers. However, one is not sure of the diversity and plurality in the terms of the content of the TV news channels as they all believe in dishing out "more of the same".

Dr. N. Bhaskara Rao is the founder-chairman of Centre for Media Studies (CMS). He is acknowledged as a pioneer of Applied Social Research in India. Dr. Rao has pioneered the concept of public opinion research - particularly election surveys - in India. During his stint as the head of the Operations Research Group (ORG), he helped establish it as a professional research body of national eminence. For more than four decades Dr. Rao has been involved with readership and viewership concepts and national surveys. He has authored several publications and written articles for many newspapers.